Running scared: Jayalalithaa’s record win in RK Nagar shows what awaits DMK in assembly polls
by Jul 1, 2015
AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa's record margin in her re-election at Chennai's RK Nagar constituency has been a forgone conclusion because it was an uncontested battle. The Opposition had bowed out no sooner than the election date was announced, making her the winner even before voting began. The only target before her and her party was to maximise the margin, which they did when she finally polled nearly 89 per cent of the votes.
By choosing not to contest, what the opposition parties have done is conceded defeat not just in this by-election, but also in the next general election to the assembly, which is scheduled in less than a year. Usually, for any ruling party, it's hard to win a by-election towards the end of its tenure because of anti-incumbency. If the DMK and the others are hoping for any chances in the next elections, they should have tested the waters now. Instead, they gave in without a fight.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. AFP
All the parties had the same reason to stay away from RK Nagar - that the ruling AIADMK will resort to unfair practices. By this logic, the candidature of former Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, who was elected for three consecutive terms to the assembly with massive margins or any other incumbent chief minister couldn't have been opposed for fear of misuse of official machinery. The truth in RK Nagar was that the DMK and the others were certain about their failure and didn't even want to try. By abandoning their political responsibility, what they have conceded was their moral right to be in electoral politics.
By running way, the DMK and others have invited more trouble for themselves.
All the parties had the same reason to stay away from RK Nagar - that the ruling AIADMK will resort to unfair practices. By this logic, the candidature of former Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, who was elected for three consecutive terms to the assembly with massive margins or any other incumbent chief minister couldn't have been opposed for fear of misuse of official machinery. The truth in RK Nagar was that the DMK and the others were certain about their failure and didn't even want to try. By abandoning their political responsibility, what they have conceded was their moral right to be in electoral politics.
By running way, the DMK and others have invited more trouble for themselves.
In the last election in RK Nagar in 2011, the DMK candidate had polled 52,522 votes against the AIADMK candidate. Had its supporters been with the DMK, these votes should have been either unpolled or gone to the CPI candidate, who was brave enough to take on Jaya. But he got only 9,710 votes, while another independent candidate managed 4,590.
Where did all the other votes disappear? Most of them would have certainly voted because at 74 percent, the poll percentage was higher than last time. Obviously, most of them went to Jaya.
This should worry the DMK and the others. Although the opposition parties stayed away, their voters didn't and most of them seemed to have gone with Jaya. Had they been loyal to the DMK and others, they could have ensured that Jaya didn't get such a massive margin of 1.5 lakh, a record in assembly elections.
It's also puzzling as to why the DMK and others didn't back the CPI candidate. CPI, in fact, had all the reasons not to contest because it had taken Jaya's help to send its candidate to the Rajya Sabha. But it stuck its neck out because of political morality. In fact, it was only the CPI and the CPM that did any campaign against Jaya, although their resources were meagre.
The inability of the DMK and others to field a common candidate exposes their vulnerability that awaits them in the next elections. In 2011, the incumbent DMK was routed by the AIADMK and the party that became the official opposition was Vijayakanth's DMDK. Vijayakanth has since parted ways with the AIADMK and is now in the opposition camp. RK Nagar should have been a pilot to test a united opposition candidate. By not using it, they have lost an opportunity to overcome their collective nervousness.
Unless all the parties unite, Jaya looks unbeatable in the 2016 election not only because of the absence of an anti-incumbency wave, but also because of the laid back attitude of the DMK and the others. They are unable to find the chinks in Jaya's armour and have been politically silent. There have not been able to mount any attack against her government, either by taking up people's issues or exposing corruption scandals. In fact, the DMDK's Vijayakanth has been more outspoken than either Karunanidhi or Stalin.
The only hope for the DMK will be the alternating verdict of the people in the past. After the death of AIADMK founder and former chief minister MG Ramachandran (MGR), who ruled the state for three terms in a row, either the DMK or the AIADMK has not been able to get a second consecutive term. Anti-incumbency had been an unavoidable reality that neither of them could overcome, however good or bad they had been in office.
However, that even with a court verdict that found her guilty of corruption she could come back with a record margin should worry Karunanidhi and Stalin.
This should worry the DMK and the others. Although the opposition parties stayed away, their voters didn't and most of them seemed to have gone with Jaya. Had they been loyal to the DMK and others, they could have ensured that Jaya didn't get such a massive margin of 1.5 lakh, a record in assembly elections.
It's also puzzling as to why the DMK and others didn't back the CPI candidate. CPI, in fact, had all the reasons not to contest because it had taken Jaya's help to send its candidate to the Rajya Sabha. But it stuck its neck out because of political morality. In fact, it was only the CPI and the CPM that did any campaign against Jaya, although their resources were meagre.
The inability of the DMK and others to field a common candidate exposes their vulnerability that awaits them in the next elections. In 2011, the incumbent DMK was routed by the AIADMK and the party that became the official opposition was Vijayakanth's DMDK. Vijayakanth has since parted ways with the AIADMK and is now in the opposition camp. RK Nagar should have been a pilot to test a united opposition candidate. By not using it, they have lost an opportunity to overcome their collective nervousness.
Unless all the parties unite, Jaya looks unbeatable in the 2016 election not only because of the absence of an anti-incumbency wave, but also because of the laid back attitude of the DMK and the others. They are unable to find the chinks in Jaya's armour and have been politically silent. There have not been able to mount any attack against her government, either by taking up people's issues or exposing corruption scandals. In fact, the DMDK's Vijayakanth has been more outspoken than either Karunanidhi or Stalin.
The only hope for the DMK will be the alternating verdict of the people in the past. After the death of AIADMK founder and former chief minister MG Ramachandran (MGR), who ruled the state for three terms in a row, either the DMK or the AIADMK has not been able to get a second consecutive term. Anti-incumbency had been an unavoidable reality that neither of them could overcome, however good or bad they had been in office.
However, that even with a court verdict that found her guilty of corruption she could come back with a record margin should worry Karunanidhi and Stalin.
What should also worry them is the possibility of the BJP and the AIADMK joining hands. If Jaya beats the cycle of alternating power, it will be a disastrous set back for the DMK and its future because in the past, MGR had kept the party out of power as long as he was live.
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/running-scared-jayalalithaas-record-win-in-rk-nagar-shows-what-awaits-dmk-in-assembly-polls-2321620.html
No comments:
Post a Comment